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March 12, 2013
New index aims to predict lifespan and cut medical costs
Want to know how long you’ll live? San Francisco researchers
developed a new 12-item “mortality index,” which aims to predict how
long people older than 50 will live, to help curb costly medical
procedures and limit health screenings. The index is based on data of more
than 20,000 adults over the age of 50 from 1998 until 2008, from the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally-representative sample of
independently living U.S. adults. Intended for use by doctors, the test estimates which older adults
are not expected to live 10 years or more. This could help doctors
treating patients less likely to live avoid prescribing harsh medical
treatments and cancer screenings. Women less likely to live, for
example, may not need cervical cancer screenings, because the cancer
would take time to develop and not end up being the cause of death.Described as a “simple checklist,” each item on the index is assigned a
point value, with 26 being the overall highest score, or most likely to
die. That person would be a man, at least 85-years-old, a smoker, and
have a BMI more than 25, among other things. You can check the index here in pdf format: The index
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